Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in 56%+0·Fed Decision in June0%+0·More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 202588%+5·Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for F6%+1·What Iranian demands will Trump agree 1%-1·Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in 56%+0·Fed Decision in June0%+0·More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 202588%+5·Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for F6%+1·What Iranian demands will Trump agree 1%-1·
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Macro Intelligence
What Kalshi and Polymarket say about the macro economy, paired with analysis. Fed policy, inflation, recession risk, and oil shocks. Probabilities update live. When these numbers move, somebody paid for that information.
As of March 2026: recession odds at 28-31% across platforms. Fed March 18 hold near 100%. One rate cut priced as the most likely full-year outcome. April 10 CPI is the next major repricing catalyst.
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Featured
FeaturedFed PolicyMar 15, 2026
FOMC March 18 2026: Prediction Markets Got the Dot Plot Right. They Missed the Dissent.
Kalshi and Polymarket priced the March 2026 Fed hold at 99% and nailed the dot plot median. The dissent count was the miss. Full scorecard, dot plot breakdown, and updated year-end rate path.
Read full analysis →
Key Numbers
HoldConfirmed
Dissents1 (Miran)
Dot Plot3.4%
The Signal
“4 of 6 correct. The rate decision and dot plot median were fully priced. The dissent count was the miss.”
All Articles
EnergyMar 13, 2026
LA Gas at $8: What Kalshi & Polymarket Energy Contracts Signal for 2026
Crude oil floors are repricing in real-time. We analyze the specific energy contracts signaling a national gas price surge and why the California market is the first lead indicator.
6 min read→
Fed PolicyMar 12, 2026
Fed Rate Cut Odds: How to Read Kalshi & Polymarket Fed Predictions
Move past the dot plots. Learn how to read live Fed prediction market contracts to identify interest rate mispricing and policy shifts before they hit the headlines.
6 min read→
MacroMar 12, 2026
Prediction Markets for Macro Traders: A 2026 Edge Analysis
How prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give macro traders a real-time probability edge on Fed policy, inflation, recession risk, and rate cut expectations.
8 min read→
RecessionMar 12, 2026
Recession Odds Just Hit Their Highest Level Since November
Kalshi peaked at 34% when oil crossed $100. Polymarket sits at 31%. Here is what every active recession market is pricing right now and what moves the number next.
5 min read→
InflationMar 11, 2026
How Kalshi Called the Feb 2026 CPI Print
The February inflation data is in. See how prediction markets accurately forecasted the re-acceleration and what the current CPI tape signals for the March surge.
10 min read→
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Data: Kalshi + Polymarket
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