March Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.8%48%+0·Will the national debt hit $50 trillio51%+0·ECB Interest Rates: March 2026: No cha99%+0·More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 202582%-2·Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to15%+0·March Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.8%48%+0·Will the national debt hit $50 trillio51%+0·ECB Interest Rates: March 2026: No cha99%+0·More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 202582%-2·Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to15%+0·
Blog
Macro Intelligence
What Kalshi and Polymarket say about the macro economy, paired with analysis. Fed policy, inflation, recession risk, and oil shocks. Probabilities update live. When these numbers move, somebody paid for that information.
As of March 2026: recession odds at 28-31% across platforms. Fed March 18 hold near 100%. One rate cut priced as the most likely full-year outcome. April 10 CPI is the next major repricing catalyst.
Fed OddsRecession ProbabilityCPI ForecastKalshiPolymarketMacro Analysis
Categories
Also on PredictionBrief
Live Markets →Go Pro →
Featured
FeaturedEnergyMar 13, 2026
LA Gas at $8: What Kalshi & Polymarket Energy Contracts Signal for 2026
Crude oil floors are repricing in real-time. We analyze the specific energy contracts signaling a national gas price surge and why the California market is the first lead indicator.
Read full analysis →
Key Numbers
WTI > $11080%
Gas > $460%
Inflation Surge87c
The Signal
“The $8.21 Chevron in LA is not a California story. It is the first data point in a national repricing.”
All Articles
Fed PolicyMar 12, 2026
Fed Rate Cut Odds: How to Read Kalshi & Polymarket Fed Predictions
Move past the dot plots. Learn how to read live Fed prediction market contracts to identify interest rate mispricing and policy shifts before they hit the headlines.
6 min read→
MacroMar 12, 2026
Prediction Markets for Macro Traders: A 2026 Edge Analysis
How prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give macro traders a real-time probability edge on Fed policy, inflation, recession risk, and rate cut expectations.
8 min read→
RecessionMar 12, 2026
US Recession Probability 2026: Kalshi & Polymarket Odds (March Update)
Kalshi and Polymarket currently put US recession odds at 31%. Updated daily. See how prediction markets price recession risk vs. economist forecasts.
5 min read→
InflationMar 11, 2026
How Kalshi Called the Feb 2026 CPI Print
The February inflation data is in. See how prediction markets accurately forecasted the re-acceleration and what the current CPI tape signals for the March surge.
10 min read→
Free Weekly Brief
Get these odds before the open
Top 5 macro markets, macro breakdown, and economic calendar. Free every Monday at 8:00 AM ET.
Subscribe Free
Data: Kalshi + Polymarket
Not financial advice · predictionbrief.io
Markets know first.
© 2026 PredictionBrief
Updated every 5 minutes