Christine Lagarde out as ECB presid…25%·How low will 10-year Treasury yield…6%·How many jobs added in September…30%·Will the US government take control…34%·How many Fed rate cuts in 2026…2%·Christine Lagarde out as ECB presid…25%·How low will 10-year Treasury yield…6%·How many jobs added in September…30%·Will the US government take control…34%·How many Fed rate cuts in 2026…2%·
LIVE · MACRO INTELLIGENCE

What prediction markets
actually say about macro

Money-weighted probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket on Fed policy, inflation, recession risk, and geopolitics. What's actually priced in right now, not what analysts think.

One brief. In your inbox at 8:00am ET before the open.

MacroeconomicsPrediction MarketsFinancial ForecastingKalshiPolymarket

Free weekly brief · No card required · Unsubscribe anytime

J
M
S
A
R
Read by people who make decisions before 9:30am
Join our free Telegram community
$18.3B
Monthly volume tracked
2.4M+
Active traders as signal
8:00am
Daily delivery (ET)
Powered byKalshiPolymarket
Here's what you get

Saturday, September 19, 2026

PREDICTIONBRIEF · LIVE · MACRO EDITION
Macro & Rates Morning Intelligence
Central BanksRatesEmploymentTechFed Policy
MACRO SNAPSHOT

The 5 highest-volume macro contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket right now. Fed cuts, inflation, recession, employment. Each number is backed by real money. Subscribe to get this with 24hr shift analysis and a full synthesis at 8:00am ET.

25%
Central BanksPolymarket▼15pts
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
vol $2K
6%
RatesPolymarket▼3pts
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?: Below 4.76%
vol $4K
30%
EmploymentPolymarket▼7pts
How many jobs added in September?: 100k to 150k
vol $2K
34%
TechKalshi
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
vol $10K
2%
Fed PolicyPolymarket
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
vol $25K
LIVE TERMINAL/markets
$fetch --live --source all --macro
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president i25%-15
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get 6%-3
How many jobs added in September30%-7
5+markets
2exchanges
5mrefresh
Open Live Terminal→
ECONOMIC CALENDAR · NEXT 14 DAYS
Sep 26PCE Deflatorhigh
Oct 2Jobs Reporthigh
Data: Kalshi + Polymarket · 8:00am ET weekdayspredictionbrief.io
From readers
“I used to spend 20 minutes every morning checking Kalshi and Polymarket separately. Now I just read this with my coffee and I'm caught up before my first meeting.”
J
James R.
Fixed Income Analyst
“Showed this to my team and now it's part of our morning standup. The probability shifts are the best part. You can see sentiment move before the headlines catch up.”
M
Maria T.
VP, Commercial Lending
“Honestly I didn't even know prediction markets existed until a colleague forwarded me this. Now I check the odds before every client call about rates. Total game changer.”
D
David K.
Mortgage Loan Officer
“Most morning newsletters tell you what already happened. This one tells you what the market thinks is about to happen. That's the difference.”
S
Sarah L.
Portfolio Strategist
Pricing

Know what's priced in before the open.

Free
$0Weekly
✓Top 5 macro markets weekly
✓Weekly macro summary
✓Monday morning delivery
✓Unsubscribe anytime
MOST POPULAR
Standard
$19/mo
✓Everything in Free
✓3x per week (Mon, Wed, Fri)
✓Full 14-day economic calendar
✓24hr probability shift alerts
✓Early access to new features
Pro
$49/mo
✓Everything in Standard
✓Every weekday at 8:00am ET
✓Live probability dashboard access
✓Probability shock alerts
✓Cross-domain intel (geopolitics, tech, energy)
✓Macro correlation analysis
✓Full historical archive access
✓Priority support

Join the macro conversation

Free community for finance professionals tracking prediction markets. Share insights, discuss probability shifts, and stay ahead of macro moves.

Join PredictionBrief Community

Free and open to everyone