February 2026 CPI printed +0.3% MoM and +2.4% YoY on March 11, 2026. Kalshi's prediction market had 2.4% as the 42c favorite while Wall Street was split between 2.4% and 2.5%. Core CPI landed at 2.5%, the high end of a distribution that repriced in a single session on February 14 when "Above 2.5%" dropped from 72c to 33c overnight.
The Fed March 18 hold is near 100%. March CPI releases April 10, the first print to capture the Iran oil shock in the energy basket. February's 2.4% is the last clean inflation baseline.
The number that mattered most today was not the one that printed at 8:30. It was the 42c sitting on Kalshi's 2.4% YoY contract at final settlement. Wall Street was still arguing between 2.4% and 2.5%. The order book had already done the work. BLS confirmed it this morning.
This is what prediction markets are supposed to do. Not react. Anticipate. The gap between what analysts pencil in and what real money prices is exactly where the alpha lives. Today, Kalshi's distribution was tighter and more accurate than the consensus range circulating in sellside notes ahead of the print.
Core is the part worth sitting with. 2.5% printed, and yes, "Above 2.5%" was only at 31c going in. But look at where this started. On January 27, "Above 3.1%" core was trading at 32c. Real money pricing a genuinely hot outcome, not noise. Over the next six weeks, that fear systematically came out of the market. Traders were not guessing. They were converging.
By February 14, "Above 2.3%" had hit 99c and held. The distribution compressed into a tight band around 2.4 to 2.5% over 43 days. That is exactly where it landed. This is the prediction market doing its job: not picking a single number, but pricing the correct range and eliminating tail risk over time.
MoM was a different situation entirely. On March 10, 0.2% and 0.3% were dead even at 42c each. A 1c gap at settlement. When you see a spread that thin, the market is telling you something useful: it genuinely does not know, and that epistemic humility is itself information. The coin landed on 0.3%. It was always going to be a coin flip, and the market said so before the print.
Shelter remains the structural driver, accounting for the largest single monthly contribution. Food up 3.1% YoY. Energy was still muted in February. That is the crucial caveat, and the reason this report has a sequel.
On the Fed, there is nothing to debate. March 18 hold probability is near 100%. The committee has no opening to move. Core at 2.5%, shelter still the largest monthly driver, food at 3.1% YoY. The market priced this outcome weeks ago and today's print gave them no reason to reconsider.
The more interesting question is what the Fed does with the energy shock that is now building in March data. The FOMC statement on the 18th will be scrutinized for language around "transitory" supply-side pressures versus a structural re-rating of the inflation path. Prediction markets are currently pricing exactly 1 rate cut in 2026 as the most likely outcome. But that distribution will reprice as the April 10 print comes into view.
Every number in today's report was collected before the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began February 28. The energy surge has not touched this index yet. February's 2.4% is the last clean baseline you get. What March does to it is the most consequential macro question currently open.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply in transit. Brent spiked above $110 before paring to the mid-$90s. The market is not treating this as a transitory event. $130+ WTI by year-end is now the probability leader on Kalshi at 55c, and $115+ is priced at near-certainty (96c). This is not a geopolitical risk premium anymore. It is the base case.
The transmission mechanism is direct: oil above $100 means gas prices follow. Kalshi currently prices a 60% chance U.S. gas exceeds $4/gallon this month, against a national average of $3.48 as of Monday. If that hits, it shows up in March CPI's energy component in full force. The April 10 print will be the first real read on the pass-through. February's report told you where inflation was before the shock. March will tell you what the shock actually costs.
The distribution the market builds between now and April 10 is the trade. Watch the Kalshi inflation surge contract, currently at 87c and moving, for the real-time repricing as the energy shock propagates through the basket. That is where the alpha will be priced before any analyst has written the first word of their April preview note.