100 live macro probabilities from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket across 6 categories. Money-weighted odds on Fed policy, recession risk, inflation, and global macro events. Each probability is backed by real capital. Updated every 5 minutes.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts on real-world events. The price reflects the market's consensus probability. A contract at $0.72 means a 72% chance. Unlike analyst forecasts, these are backed by real money.
Where does this data come from?
This page pulls live data from Kalshi (a CFTC-regulated exchange) and Polymarket (a crypto-based prediction market). Each row shows its source so you can see which platform is pricing each event.
How often is this data updated?
Every 5 minutes. Probabilities can shift rapidly around major economic releases like CPI, jobs reports, and FOMC decisions. Check back during live events for real-time moves.
What do the 24h changes mean?
The 24h column shows percentage point moves in the last day. Large moves often signal new information just hit the market, like an economic data release or a policy announcement.
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